International recruitment exposes universities and host regions to concentrated cross-border demand, yet published dashboards rarely disclose the joint distribution of source countries and institutions. This study turns the November 2024 Open Doors state fact sheets into a reproducible market-risk screen for 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. These markets contain 1,126,079 international students and $43.817 billion in estimated regional expenditure in 2023/24. The median state’s largest source market accounts for 28.5% of students; its largest receiving institution accounts for 32.2%. Sharp bounds calculated from the separately published margins show that, in 48 of 51 markets, a positive share must both come from one of the five leading origins and attend one of the leading institutions. The median guaranteed overlap is 32.0% of a state’s international students; Arizona’s is 68.4%. An illustrative 10% decline in each state’s largest origin implies $1.511 billion in expenditure exposure across the 51 markets under a constant-spending assumption, led by California ($233.1 million) and New York ($229.9 million). The bounds identify segments requiring institutional cross-tabs; the scenario is neither a forecast nor a measure of university revenue. The analysis supplies an auditable way to prioritize recruitment diversification and market-level due diligence with public business data.