International Journal of Neutrosophic Science

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https://doi.org/10.54216/IJNS

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Volume 21 , Issue 2 , PP: 107-117, 2023 | Cite this article as | XML | Html | PDF | Full Length Article

The impact of economic growth and fiscal policy on poverty rate in Uzbekistan: application of neutrosophic theory and time series approaches

Aziza Usmanova 1 *

  • 1 Tashkent State University of Economics, Uzbekistan - (a.usmanova@tsue.uz)
  • Doi: https://doi.org/10.54216/IJNS.210210

    Received: February 09, 2023 Revised: May 03, 2023 Accepted: June 02, 2023
    Abstract

    The aim of this paper is to analyze how economic growth and fiscal policy impact on poverty rate in Uzbekistan. To reach this aim neutrosophic-AHP method was applied together with two time series models, namely Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) and Vector Autoregression (VAR) models. The statistical data of Uzbekistan over the period of 2000-2021 was used. Neutrosophic-AHP served as a basis for time series analysis. In accordance with AIC and BIC criteria, VAR was chosen as the most adequate model. Results of VAR model showed that a poverty rate has a delay effect on two years, when the increase of the second lag of poverty difference by one unit also increased current poverty difference by 0.501 units. Also, it was revealed that economic growth affects poverty adversely with delay in one lag, whereas taxes – with two lags. Interesting situation occurred with government expenditures, which impacted negatively on poverty after a one-year lag, but positively after two lags.

    Keywords :

    poverty , economic growth , fiscal policy , neutrosophy, ARDL , VAR

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    Cite This Article As :
    Usmanova, Aziza. The impact of economic growth and fiscal policy on poverty rate in Uzbekistan: application of neutrosophic theory and time series approaches. International Journal of Neutrosophic Science, vol. , no. , 2023, pp. 107-117. DOI: https://doi.org/10.54216/IJNS.210210
    Usmanova, A. (2023). The impact of economic growth and fiscal policy on poverty rate in Uzbekistan: application of neutrosophic theory and time series approaches. International Journal of Neutrosophic Science, (), 107-117. DOI: https://doi.org/10.54216/IJNS.210210
    Usmanova, Aziza. The impact of economic growth and fiscal policy on poverty rate in Uzbekistan: application of neutrosophic theory and time series approaches. International Journal of Neutrosophic Science , no. (2023): 107-117. DOI: https://doi.org/10.54216/IJNS.210210
    Usmanova, A. (2023) . The impact of economic growth and fiscal policy on poverty rate in Uzbekistan: application of neutrosophic theory and time series approaches. International Journal of Neutrosophic Science , () , 107-117 . DOI: https://doi.org/10.54216/IJNS.210210
    Usmanova A. [2023]. The impact of economic growth and fiscal policy on poverty rate in Uzbekistan: application of neutrosophic theory and time series approaches. International Journal of Neutrosophic Science. (): 107-117. DOI: https://doi.org/10.54216/IJNS.210210
    Usmanova, A. "The impact of economic growth and fiscal policy on poverty rate in Uzbekistan: application of neutrosophic theory and time series approaches," International Journal of Neutrosophic Science, vol. , no. , pp. 107-117, 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.54216/IJNS.210210