Journal of International Economics Research
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Volume 2 , Issue 1 , PP: 07-14, 2025 | Cite this article as | XML | Html | PDF | Full Length Article
Akmal Shaimardanovich Durmanov 1 *
Doi: https://doi.org/10.54216/JIER.020102
Increasing price volatility in agricultural markets poses a serious challenge to income stability and investment planning for agricultural producers, particularly in transition economies such as Uzbekistan. Market liberalization, exposure to global commodity price fluctuations, climate-related shocks, and exchange rate movements have intensified price risks in the agricultural sector, making traditional administrative and ad hoc support mechanisms insufficient. Under these conditions, the relevance of market-based price risk management instruments has grown substantially. The purpose of this article is to examine the theoretical foundations and practical applicability of price risk hedging instruments - namely futures, options, and agricultural insurance - in the agricultural sector of Uzbekistan. The study is based on an analytical and empirical approach that combines descriptive statistical analysis, variance-based hedging effectiveness assessment, and comparative analysis of international practices. The empirical dataset covers monthly price observations for key agricultural commodities in Uzbekistan over the period 2015–2024 (n = 360). The results show that price volatility, measured by the coefficient of variation, reaches 21.6% for fruits and 24.3% for vegetables, compared to 14.8% for wheat and 11.2% for cotton. Simulated hedging scenarios demonstrate that the application of price hedging instruments reduces income volatility from 22.5% under unhedged conditions to 13.4% under hedged conditions, corresponding to a variance reduction of up to 41.3%, depending on the commodity. The study substantiates the effectiveness of combining market-based hedging instruments with agricultural insurance to enhance income stability. The practical significance of the results lies in their applicability for developing risk-oriented agricultural policies and financial instruments, while the theoretical contribution consists in adapting classical hedging concepts to the institutional conditions of Uzbekistan’s agricultural sector.
Price risk , Agricultural sector , Hedging , Futures contracts , Options , Agricultural insurance
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