Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Metaheuristics
Journal DOI
2833-5597ISSN (Online)
Volume 8 , Issue 1 , PP: 60-69, 2024 | Cite this article as | XML | Html | PDF | Full Length Article
Khaled Sh. Gaber 1 , Mohamed Abd Elmonem Elsebaey 2 , Ahmed Al-Sayed Ibrahim 3
Doi: https://doi.org/10.54216/JAIM.080105
Weather forecasting is a major discipline that plays an important role in fields such as agriculture, transport, and emergency management, and it largely depends on accurate forecasts. Concerning this problem, this work aimed to analyze the effectiveness of recurrent neural networks, particularly the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), for estimating rainfall depending on precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and wind speed. We will therefore use a large database containing recorded weather data obtained over several years to calibrate accurate predictive models designed to distinguish between drizzle, rain, sun, snow, and fog. The main idea of the work is to teach LSTM models that are capable of revealing temporal relations and patterns in sequential data, which makes them suitable to work on various time series forecasting such as weather prediction. The data is preprocessed effectively to clean it and make it ideal for our analysis to accurately compare the performance of one model against the others, we have divided the data into training, validation, and testing sets. The concurrency of the proposed LSTM model is then evaluated with the Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and the coefficient of determination (R²) to measure the forecasting accuracy. The findings show a better predictive performance uplift whereby the best-performing LSTM model has an MSE of 8.74, RMSE of 2.96, MAE of 2.35, and R² of 0.83. Such metrics represent logical dependence between the predicted and actual weather conditions, proving thus the efficiency of the model. Also, the evaluation shows how hyper parameters’ optimization, features’ selection, and normalization, make a huge difference in the model’s performance and indicate that the precise management of weather parameters can result in better forecasts. However, the contributors of this research are not recluded to theoretical perspective; the present study can be useful for various subjects since the dependability of weather forecasts can be improved. They will be advantaged to have more precise weather data for crop growing, road networks, and other transport systems to prepare for the worst conditions, and emergency, rescue operations to be in a better position to handle certain disasters. Consequently, this study improves the academic literature on weather peculiarities with unforeseen downpours through a demonstration and explanation of the potential of LSTM networks to analyze key meteorological characteristics for rainfall prediction. Possible future study directions are outlined, proposing the expansion of features beyond those analyzed in the existing study to improve the predictive models, the usage of continuous rather than weekly data, as well as considering the mixed-ingredients approach for increasing the prediction accuracy. This inclusive strategy seeks to enhance the realistic stages in the phased meteorological prognosis and also timely resource allocation and management tactics within climate volatility.
Weather Prediction , rainfall , LSTM , machine learning , meteorological variables , time-series forecasting
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