Volume 6 , Issue 2 , PP: 47-55, 2022 | Cite this article as | XML | Html | PDF | Full Length Article
Salim Sallal Al-Hasnawi 1 * , Laith Haleem Al-Hchemi 2
Doi: https://doi.org/10.54216/AJBOR.060205
Making stock investment decisions is a complex challenge that investors continuously face. When it comes to an uncertain future, making the wrong decision can result in massive losses. The paper aims to develop an artificial neural networks-based model predicting the closing price of top-six traded industrial ISX-listed stocks, which can guide investment decisions. The sample consisted of daily indexes ISX-released from (3/3/2019) to (31/3/2019). Matlab 2014b was used to run artificial neural networks using the nntool software. The model's performance was evaluated using Mean squared error (MSE), Root means squared error (RMSE), and R squared. Empirical results demonstrated the ability and efficiency of artificial neural networks to predict closing prices with high accuracy. As a result, we recommended employing the Artificial Neural Networks model to predict stock prices as well as relying on it to make decisions.
ANN , Stocks , Close Price , Prediction , Investment , ISX
[1] I. Virtanen and P. Yli-Olli, “Forecasting stock market prices in a thin security market,” Omega, vol. 15,
no. 2, pp. 145–155, 1987.
[2] T. C. E. Cheng, Y. K. Lo, and K. W. Ma, “Forecasting stock price index by multiple regression,” Manag.
Financ., 1990.
[3] J. Marcucci, “Forecasting stock market volatility with regime-switching GARCH models,” Stud.
Nonlinear Dyn. Econom., vol. 9, no. 4, 2005.
[4] V. H. Shah, “Machine learning techniques for stock prediction,” Found. Mach. Learn. Spring, vol. 1, no.
1, pp. 6–12, 2007.
[5] Y. Xia, Y. Liu, and Z. Chen, “Support Vector Regression for prediction of stock trend,” in 2013 6th
international conference on information management, innovation management and industrial
engineering, 2013, vol. 2, pp. 123–126.
[6] R. Nayak, L. C. Jain, and B. K. H. Ting, “Artificial Neural Networks in Biomedical Engineering: A
Review,” in Computational Mechanics–New Frontiers for the New Millennium, S. Valliappan and N.
Khalili, Eds. Oxford: Elsevier, 2001, pp. 887–892.
[7] E. Guresen, G. Kayakutlu, and T. U. Daim, “Using artificial neural network models in stock market
index prediction,” Expert Syst. Appl., vol. 38, no. 8, pp. 10389–10397, 2011, doi:
10.1016/j.eswa.2011.02.068.
[8] Y. Bing, J. K. Hao, and S. C. Zhang, “Stock Market Prediction Using Artificial Neural Networks,” Adv.
Eng. Forum, vol. 6–7, pp. 1055–1060, 2012, doi: 10.4028/www.scientific.net/aef.6-7.1055.
[9] Y. Yetis, H. Kaplan, and M. Jamshidi, “Stock market prediction by using artificial neural network,”
World Autom. Congr. Proc., pp. 718–722, 2014, doi: 10.1109/WAC.2014.6936118.
[10] K. Chen, Y. Zhou, and F. Dai, “A LSTM-based method for stock returns prediction: A case study of
China stock market,” Proc. - 2015 IEEE Int. Conf. Big Data, IEEE Big Data 2015, pp. 2823–2824,
2015, doi: 10.1109/BigData.2015.7364089.
[11] M. Billah, S. Waheed, and A. Hanifa, “Stock market prediction using an improved training algorithm of
neural network,” ICECTE 2016 - 2nd Int. Conf. Electr. Comput. Telecommun. Eng., no. December, pp.
8–10, 2017, doi: 10.1109/ICECTE.2016.7879611.
[12] M. Hiransha, E. A. Gopalakrishnan, V. K. Menon, and K. P. Soman, “NSE Stock Market Prediction
Using Deep-Learning Models,” Procedia Comput. Sci., vol. 132, no. Iccids, pp. 1351–1362, 2018, doi:
10.1016/j.procs.2018.05.050.
[13] R. Mathur, V. Pathak, and D. Bandil, Emerging Trends in Expert Applications and Security, vol. 841.
Springer Singapore, 2019.
[14] M. Shahvaroughi Farahani and S. H. Razavi Hajiagha, Forecasting stock price using integrated artificial
neural network and metaheuristic algorithms compared to time series models, vol. 25, no. 13. Springer
Berlin Heidelberg, 2021.
[15] Marwan Abdul hameed Ashour, Artificial neural networks and methods of times series forecasting, 1st
ed. Al-thakera, 2018.
[16] G. Zhang, B. E. Patuwo, and M. Y. Hu, “Forecasting with artificial neural networks:: The state of the
art,” Int. J. Forecast., vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 35–62, 1998.
[17] C. M. Bishop, Neural networks for pattern recognition. Oxford university press, 1995.
[18] M. T. Camacho Olmedo, M. Paegelow, J. F. Mas, and F. Escobar, Geomatic Approaches for Modeling
Land Change Scenarios. An Introduction. 2018.
[19] “Activation Function,” GeeksForGeeks, 2019. https://www.geeksforgeeks.org/activation-functions/.
[20] K.-L. Du and M. N. S. Swamy, Neural networks and statistical learning. Springer Science & Business
Media, 2013.
[21] C. W. John McGonagle, George Shaikouski, “Backpropagation,” 2022.
https://brilliant.org/wiki/backpropagation/.
[22] S. M. Karazi, M. Moradi, and K. Y. Benyounis, Statistical and Numerical Approaches for Modeling and
Optimizing Laser Micromachining Process-Review. Elsevier Ltd., 2019.
[23] D. K. Chaturvedi, Modeling and simulation of systems using MATLAB® and Simulink®. CRC press,
2017.
[24] X. Ying, “An overview of overfitting and its solutions,” in Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 2019,
vol. 1168, no. 2, p. 22022.
[25] Iraqi Securities Commission, “Iraq Stock Exchange (ISX),” 2022. http://www.isx-iq.net.
[26] C. B. Moler, “MathWorks MATLAB 2014b,” 2014. https://www.mathworks.com/.