International Journal of Neutrosophic Science
IJNS
2690-6805
2692-6148
10.54216/IJNS
https://www.americaspg.com/journals/show/4188
2020
2020
Modeling Bitcoin Price Dynamics Using a Fractional Maxwell-Weibull Copula Distribution
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Al-Baha University, Al-Aqiq 65931, Saudi Arabia
Alshaikh
Alshaikh
This paper presents the Fractional Maxwell-Weibull Copula (FMWC) distribution to deal with the heavy tails, extended memory, and nonlinear dependence of price returns of Bitcoins, as the existing financial models face limitations in this aspect. The FMWC provides a flexible model that allows incorporating fractional Weibull distributions to capture persistent autocorrelation, Maxwell components to model significant price changes, and a Student-t copula to capture multivariate dependencies to discuss the volatile returns of Bitcoin. The FMWC was applied to historical Bitcoin data between January 2020 and May 2025 and showed better results than other models, such as Weibull, GARCH-t, and Maxwell-Log Logistic, with an MAE of 0.034374, RMSE of 0.0335, and log-likelihood of 4200.0. Its risk measures (VaR 95% = -0.07983, CVaR 95% = -0.10882) improve tail risk estimation, which is important in risk measurement and portfolio management. Robustness tests also validate its performance over periods and proper handling of outliers. Nevertheless, the FMWC is an excellent tool, despite its computational complexity issues, and can be used by investors, traders, and regulators. Further studies on the computational efficiencies and applications to other cryptocurrencies are required to increase their application in dynamic financial markets.
2025
2025
309
326
10.54216/IJNS.260427
https://www.americaspg.com/articleinfo/21/show/4188