Fusion: Practice and Applications
FPA
2692-4048
2770-0070
10.54216/FPA
https://www.americaspg.com/journals/show/4099
2018
2018
Optimized Time-Series Forecasting for Electricity Consumption in Tetouan: A Machine Learning Approach with Greylag Goose Optimization
Faculty of Artificial Intelligence, Delta University for Science and Technology, Mansoura, Egypt; Jadara Research Center, Jadara University, Irbid 21110, Jordan
Marwa
Marwa
This paper addresses the challenge of predicting and analyzing electricity consumption patterns in Tetouan, Morocco, using time-series data. The dataset consists of 52,416 observations with 9 features, collected from the SCADA system of electricity consumption across three zones. The primary goal is to enhance forecasting accuracy and optimize prediction models through machine learning (ML) algorithms, including both timeseries models and advanced optimization techniques. We compare the performance of several baseline ML models, such as BiLSTM and Continuous Time Stochastic Modelling (CTSM), with their optimized versions, utilizing optimization algorithms like Greylag Goose Optimization (GGO), Bat Algorithm (BA), and Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA). The results show that the optimized CTSM model, using GGO, achieved substantial improvements, including the lowest Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 7.09E-07 and the highest R² of 0.990, demonstrating superior accuracy and stability. The contributions of this work include (i) benchmarking various ML models for time-series forecasting, (ii) introducing the use of optimized CTSM with meta-heuristics, and (iii) evaluating model performance using a comprehensive set of statistical metrics.
2026
2026
259
282
10.54216/FPA.210217
https://www.americaspg.com/articleinfo/3/show/4099