Formation of a System of Regional Indicators for Assessing Economic Security: Methodology, Validation, and Empirical Application
The formation of a coherent, statistically robust, and policy-relevant system of regional indicators for economic security assessment represents one of the most complex methodological challenges in contemporary regional science. This paper presents an original, multi-stage methodological framework for constructing such a system, grounding it in a synthesis of international practice, economic theory, and rigorous empirical validation. The proposed Regional Economic Security Index (RESI) integrates 30 indicators organized across 10 analytical dimensions all drawn from internationally standardized, publicly available data sources. The framework employs a two-tier aggregation architecture, combining weighted arithmetic and geometric means at the sub-index level before computing the overall composite score. Methodological robustness is demonstrated through Cronbach’s alpha reliability testing (α = 0.847), Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin adequacy assessment (KMO = 0.812), confirmatory factor analysis, Monte Carlo sensitivity simulation across 10,000 weight perturbation scenarios, and Delphi-based expert validation involving 34 specialists from 12 countries. The index is piloted across 10 illustrative regional cases spanning Europe, Central Asia, and Latin America, revealing substantial cross-regional heterogeneity and validating the framework’s discriminatory power. The study identifies seven archetypes of regional economic security vulnerability and recommends archetype-specific indicator prioritization strategies. The findings have direct implications for national statistical agencies, regional development authorities, and international organizations seeking to move beyond GDP-centric assessments toward multidimensional, early-warning-capable monitoring systems. The paper concludes with a replication protocol and open data framework to facilitate adoption in data-limited environments.
Keywords: REgional economic security; Composite index; RESI; Indicator system; Normalization; Sensitivity analysis; Delphi method; Regional typology; Vulnerability assessment; Transition economies