aspg-1-4334-1792176608 20261016185008 American Scientific Publishing Group admin@americaspg.com American Scientific Publishing Group American Journal of Business and Operations Research AJBOR 2770-0216 2692-2967 2026 14 2 Heba Moselhy Business Administration Department, Delta Higher Institute for Management and Accounting Information Systems, Egypt Noura Metawa College of Business Administration, University of Sharjah, United Arab Emirates College of Business Administration, Mansoura University, Egypt This article provides a data analysis framework to study asymmetric macro-financial relationships in an emerging market economy with significant energy dependence. Using annual observations for Egypt over 1990–2024, we estimate a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) error-correction model in which changes in Brent crude prices are algorithmically decomposed into positive and negative cumulative partial-sum series. A composite financial development index, constructed from banking-sector depth indicators, enters the model both as a direct regressor and as an interaction term with each shock component. The results show that positive oil-price shocks carry a substantially larger long-run penalty on real GDP growth than negative shocks of equal magnitude—consistent with the cost-side exposure of a net oil-importing economy. Financial deepening conditions the transmission of these shocks but does not neutralise them; the allocation of credit toward productive private-sector activity, rather than the aggregate volume of intermediation, determines the direction of the moderating effect. Rolling-window and dynamic multiplier analyses confirm structural instability in the oil–growth relationship across sub-periods, validating the nonlinear modelling approach over standard linear alternatives. Unit root tests with structural breaks, NARDL bounds tests, and a battery of diagnostic checks support the robustness of the estimated long-run relationships. The findings carry direct implications for energy-risk management, financial-sector reform, and growth-stability policy in emerging market settings. 2026 37 42 4334 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ 10.54216/AJBOR.140206 https://americaspg.com/journal/1/article/4334 https://americaspg.com/storage/articles/manuscripts/01M21KY2SV0M8VC202HA7F3EDD.pdf