Business Data Analytics for GCC Travel and
Tourism SMEs Under Geopolitical Disruption
Shummaila Afzal1, Sidra Sohail2,∗, Sana Ullah3,4
1Government Associate College for Women Wanhar Buchal Kalan, Punjab, Pakistan
2Cyprus Health and Social Sciences University, Guzelyurt, TRNC, Mersin 10, Turkey
3Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, Near East University,
Nicosia, TRNC, Turkey
4VIZJA University, Warsaw, Poland
Emails: shummaila.afzal@gmail.com; sidrasohail1@yahoo.com; sanaullah133@yahoo.com
Abstract
The paper creates the business data analytics vision of how small and medium-sized enterprises
(SMEs) of GCC travel and tourism ecosystems can mitigate the commercial disruption as the perceived
cost, uncertainty, or inconvenience of air travel increases due to geopolitical friction in the
region. Since there is a lack of public GCC micro-level booking and itinerary data, the research
paper relies on a similar public dataset: the travel mode-choice dataset published under the name of
statsmodels and initially based on the intercity mode-choice literature. The benchmark is operationalized
as an analogue of disruption-sensitive travel demand reallocation and poses a managerial
question, not a simply transport question: in the event of a shock that increases generalized cost and
waiting frictions on the most exposed mode what are the most likely demand reallocations and how
should SMEs respond? Empirical design transforms the data in the long-format alternative-choice
form into an analytical platform that is business-facing and integrates multinomial logit, random
forest, gradient boosting, and scenario stress testing into a single analytical framework. The findings
indicate that the random forest model provides the best out of sample predictive performance (accuracy
0.981; macro-F1 0.973), whereas the multinomial logit model is useful in translating scenarios
that can be understood. Average predicted air share decreases by 28.0 to 16.1 percent with simulated
air-travel disruption, and train-like substitutes acquire most of the share. The results suggest
that GCC travel, hospitality, and mobility SMEs cannot afford to trust one open channel when a
period of geopolitical escalation occurs, but rather they should develop substitution-ready packages,
flexible repricing guidelines, and portfolios of partnering that encompass low-friction options. The
article adds a unique business analytics template of demand reallocation sensitive to crisis through
the use of repeatable public information and underlines practical resilience solutions as opposed to
self-forecasting wars.
Keywords: Business data analytics; SMEs; GCC; Tourism resilience; Travel disruption; Scenario
stress testing; Mode substitution