An Optimized Artificial Neural Network Model Using JAYA Algorithm for Energy Consumption Forecasting in Oman

 

 

 

Zainab Hamed AlSidairi1,*, Saraswathy Shamini Gunasekaran1

 

1Universiti Tenaga Nasional (UNITEN), Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

 

Emails: PT20711@student.uniten.edu.my; sshamini@uniten.edu.my

 

Text Box: Abstract The Accurate energy forecasting is vital for strategic planning, particularly in de-veloping economies with rapidly evolving demand patterns. This study pro-poses a hybrid Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model optimized using a modified JAYA algorithm to forecast energy consumption in Oman. The JAYA algorithm’s parameter-free, metaheuristic search improves ANN train-ing by enhancing convergence speed and reducing the risk of local minima. Historical data from 2017–2021—comprising GDP, population, and oil and gas production—were used as inputs. Model performance was benchmarked against an ANN trained with the Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) algorithm using mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), relative error (RE), and root mean square error (RMSE) as evaluation metrics. Results show that ANN–JAYA consistently outperformed ANN–ABC, achieving lower error rates and greater robustness. The proposed approach offers a reliable deci-sion-support tool for policymakers and energy authorities, enabling more ef-fective resource allocation and long-term planning. Future research will ex-tend the framework to integrate renewable energy indicators and real-time data for adaptive, sustainable forecasting.

 

Received: January 22, 2025 Revised: March 25, 2025 Accepted: June 01, 2025

 

Keywords: JAYA algorithm; Artificial Neural Network; Energy forecasting; Me-taheuristic optimization; Oman